<p style="line-height: 150%; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="color: black; mso-themecolor: text1"><font face="宋體"><font size="3"> 本周一，動力煤<span lang="EN-US"><a href="/"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; text-decoration: none; mso-themecolor: text1; text-underline: none"><span lang="EN-US">期貨</span></span></a></span>價格突破之前的振蕩格局，破位下行，最低觸及<span lang="EN-US">510</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>噸。在國內(nèi)動力煤價格走低之時，進口煤和國際三港動力煤價格也同步走弱。整體動力煤市場仍然不景氣。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></font></font></span></p> <p style="line-height: 150%; widows: 2; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; orphans: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px"><font size="3"><strong><span style="font-family: 宋體; color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋體; mso-themecolor: text1"> 黃驊港存煤量偏高暗示個別企業(yè)銷售壓力偏大</span></strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-themecolor: text1"><o:p></o:p></span></font></p> <p style="line-height: 150%; widows: 2; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; orphans: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px"><span style="color: black; mso-themecolor: text1"><font face="宋體"><font size="3"> 北方重點港口煤炭庫存從<span lang="EN-US">4</span>月中旬的低點逐漸上升，目前庫存壓力并不算太大，但是黃驊港存煤量偏高。秦皇島港庫存約為<span lang="EN-US">630</span>萬噸，曹妃甸港庫存約為<span lang="EN-US">510</span>萬噸，京唐港庫存約為<span lang="EN-US">470</span>萬噸，均屬于正常范圍，但黃驊港庫存約為<span lang="EN-US">210</span>萬噸，屬于較高水平。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></font></font></span></p> <p style="line-height: 150%; widows: 2; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; orphans: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px"><font size="3"><strong><span style="font-family: 宋體; color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋體; mso-themecolor: text1"> 煤礦庫存壓力大，龍頭企業(yè)再次醞釀降價</span></strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-themecolor: text1"><o:p></o:p></span></font></p> <p style="line-height: 150%; widows: 2; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; orphans: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px"><span style="color: black; mso-themecolor: text1"><font face="宋體"><font size="3"> <span lang="EN-US"><a href="/focus/sxmtcz/index.shtml"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; text-decoration: none; mso-themecolor: text1; text-underline: none"><span lang="EN-US">山西煤炭</span></span></a></span>庫存從<span lang="EN-US">4</span>月中旬<span lang="EN-US">4420</span>萬噸的高位下降至<span lang="EN-US">4050</span>萬噸，但仍處于較高位置，煤礦的庫存壓力較大。從山西五大煤礦集團來看，同煤集團庫存最多，達到<span lang="EN-US">650</span>萬噸；山西焦煤庫存次之，且仍在大幅攀升，比<span lang="EN-US">2013</span>年庫存量增大<span lang="EN-US">6</span>倍；潞安集團目前庫存是<span lang="EN-US">2013</span>年庫存的<span lang="EN-US">2</span>倍；陽煤集團和晉城煤業(yè)的庫存壓力稍小一些。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></font></font></span></p> <p style="line-height: 150%; widows: 2; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; orphans: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px"><span style="color: black; mso-themecolor: text1"><font face="宋體"><font size="3"> <span lang="EN-US">6</span>月初，神華、同煤集團在調(diào)降高卡位煤炭價格<span lang="EN-US">5</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>噸的同時，提高了低卡位煤價格，這與我們之前的調(diào)研吻合。<span lang="EN-US">5</span>月下旬，北方港口對低卡位煤需求大、對高卡位煤需求小，主要原因是，目前南方雨水充足且進入<span lang="EN-US"><a href="/consumer/"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; text-decoration: none; mso-themecolor: text1; text-underline: none"><span lang="EN-US">消費</span></span></a></span>淡季，電廠更傾向于采購一些便宜的低卡位煤。但是低卡位煤價格上調(diào)后市場并不買賬，導(dǎo)致需求下降明顯，而高卡位煤調(diào)價后銷量也沒有明顯增加，因此，預(yù)計本周神華集團會再次對各卡位煤種全面降價。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></font></font></span></p> <p style="line-height: 150%; widows: 2; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; orphans: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px"><span style="color: black; mso-themecolor: text1"><font face="宋體"><font size="3"> 在市場不景氣形勢下，一些企業(yè)已經(jīng)有進一步的調(diào)價行動。<span lang="EN-US">5</span>月中旬，中煤集團下調(diào)煤價<span lang="EN-US">5</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>噸，主要是由于庫存高、接貨船舶少；<span lang="EN-US">5</span>月<span lang="EN-US">29</span>日又增加了量價優(yōu)惠，意圖降低高卡煤庫存來擴大市場占有率。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></font></font></span></p> <p style="line-height: 150%; widows: 2; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; orphans: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px"><font size="3"><strong><span style="font-family: 宋體; color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋體; mso-themecolor: text1"> 下游需求疲弱將繼續(xù)壓制價格</span></strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-themecolor: text1"><o:p></o:p></span></font></p> <p style="line-height: 150%; widows: 2; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; orphans: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px"><span style="color: black; mso-themecolor: text1"><font size="3"><font face="宋體"> 從電廠情況看，六大發(fā)電集團煤炭庫存<span lang="EN-US">3</span>月之后穩(wěn)步增加，但增加幅度不大，在雨水充足之際電廠補庫力度不強。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></font></font></span></p> <p style="line-height: 150%; widows: 2; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; orphans: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px"><span style="color: black; mso-themecolor: text1"><font size="3"><font face="宋體"> 北方港口錨地船舶數(shù)處于低位，甚至出現(xiàn)空泊等船現(xiàn)象，重點港口煤炭運量下降，秦皇島港至廣州和上海煤炭運價創(chuàng)<span lang="EN-US">2009</span>年以來的新低，水泥制造用電量增速由上月的<span lang="EN-US">12.4%</span>下降至<span lang="EN-US">6.5%</span>，這些均說明下游需求不振，煤炭價格將繼續(xù)受到壓制。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></font></font></span></p> <p style="line-height: 150%; widows: 2; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; orphans: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px"><span style="color: black; mso-themecolor: text1"><font size="3"><font face="宋體"> 總體來看，在下游需求疲弱的背景下，煤礦通過減產(chǎn)降價來穩(wěn)定市場，后市預(yù)計會再次降價促銷。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></font></font></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 150%; font-family: 宋體; color: black; font-size: 12pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-themecolor: text1"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="line-height: 150%; font-family: 宋體; color: black; font-size: 12pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-themecolor: text1"> 來源：期貨日報<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p> </p>
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